Issue #161·

A 100% tariff on imported drugs just landed. Your pharmacy bill might notice.

The White House just dropped the most aggressive trade action the pharmaceutical industry has ever seen, and the ripple effects touch everything from your insurance premiums to where the next cancer drug gets manufactured. Meanwhile, mRNA technology officially proved it's not a one-hit wonder, and Big Pharma went on a multibillion-dollar shopping spree.

Top Story Today

The Pill You Take Just Got a 100% Tax (Unless Its Maker Cut a Deal)

The Trump administration announced a 100% tariff on imported brand-name drugs, the most aggressive pharmaceutical trade action in U.S. history. Companies that commit to domestic manufacturing and Most-Favored-Nation pricing can negotiate a reduced rate or a temporary exemption; those that don't face a duty that effectively doubles their import costs. Pfizer, Merck, Bristol Myers Squibb, and AstraZeneca have already struck deals. Everyone else is scrambling. Generic drugs are exempt for now, but a separate 100%-to-200% tariff on generics is scheduled for 2028, putting 90% of U.S. prescriptions on the clock.

Why it matters: This tariff reshapes the entire calculus of pharmaceutical manufacturing, pricing, and global supply chains. For small biotechs that rely on overseas contract manufacturers, it could turn viable products into uneconomic ones overnight.

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Clinical and Regulatory

The Flu Shot Just Got Its First Real Upgrade in Decades

The FDA approved Moderna's mFlusiva, the first-ever mRNA flu vaccine, after a 40,805-person trial showed it cut flu cases by 27% compared to traditional shots. The advisory committee voted 9-0 in favor. Moderna missed the 2026 contracting cycle, so meaningful revenue won't hit until 2027, but the approval validates mRNA as a platform well beyond COVID. Analysts project $750 million in U.S. flu sales by 2030.

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The First Drug That Actually Fixes What's Broken in Narcolepsy

Takeda's Orzeyful became the first approved orexin receptor agonist, restoring the missing brain signal behind narcolepsy type 1 rather than masking symptoms. Two Phase 3 trials hit every endpoint with p-values below 0.001, and about 70% of patients reported no significant cognitive difficulties. It still needs DEA scheduling before it can ship.

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Your Toddler Can Now Get a Glucose Monitor Without a Prescription

Dexcom's Stelo became the first OTC continuous glucose monitor cleared for kids as young as two. No prescription, no specialist visit, no insurance maze. Pediatric type 2 diabetes cases doubled between 2002 and 2018, so the timing is strategic. Dexcom is guiding 2026 revenue north of $5.2 billion, and no competitor has a pediatric OTC CGM yet.

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Deals and M&A

Biogen Drops $5.6 Billion on an Eye Drug Company (and a Sneaky Kidney Play)

Biogen is acquiring Apellis Pharmaceuticals at $41 per share, grabbing the geographic atrophy drug Syfovre plus up to $4 per share in contingent payments if sales hit $2 billion. The sneaky bonus: Apellis' nephrology infrastructure gives Biogen a launchpad for its own kidney disease pipeline. Revenue needs to nearly triple for the full CVR payout.

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Gilead Spent $5 Billion on a German ADC Startup You've Probably Never Heard Of

Gilead is paying up to $5 billion for Tubulis, a Munich-based antibody-drug conjugate company it first partnered with for just $20 million in late 2024. The deal follows Gilead's "date first, propose later" strategy and adds next-gen ADC platform technology to complement its existing Trodelvy franchise. Shares barely moved; Wall Street sees it as sensible, not reckless.

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Servier Bets $2.65 Billion on a Drug Before Its Final Exam

French pharma giant Servier is paying up to $2.65 billion for Edgewise Therapeutics' muscular dystrophy business, including sevasemten, an oral drug with pivotal Phase 3 results still expected in Q4 2026. Earlier data showed 3.5 years of disease stabilization. Edgewise plans to funnel the $1.55 billion upfront into its cardiac pipeline.

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Science and Policy

A Gene Therapy Is Growing Muscle in Patients Who've Only Ever Lost It

Epicrispr reported that three FSHD patients gained an average of 0.8 pounds of lean muscle after a single IV infusion of EPI-321, the first time any therapy has shown muscle mass increases in this disease. The approach silences the toxic DUX4 gene without cutting DNA. The data are early (three patients, no placebo arm), but for a disease with zero approved treatments, any gain is unprecedented.

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The CDC Had Proof COVID Vaccines Cut ER Visits in Half. Then It Shelved the Report.

A CDC study showing COVID vaccines reduced ER visits by 50% and hospitalizations by 55% was cleared by internal review, then blocked from publication by agency leadership over vague "methodological concerns." The study used the same test-negative design the CDC has relied on for years. With only about 17.5% of adults vaccinated last season, burying the data risks deepening an already severe trust crisis.

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