

Amgen and Boehringer Ingelheim both killed immunology programs on the same day, citing slim odds of success. The terminations were tiny, but the signal they send about pharma's tightening standards is anything but.
Two of the world's biggest drugmakers just took out the trash on the same day. And both bags came from the same room: immunology.
Amgen and Boehringer Ingelheim each killed an early-stage immunology program in April 2026, citing the same basic reason: these drugs probably weren't going to work. No safety scares. No dramatic failures. Just a cold, quiet calculation that the odds weren't worth the bet.
It's a small story on the surface. Two Phase 1 programs, tested only in healthy volunteers, gone before they ever reached a single patient. But zoom out, and it tells you something bigger about where pharma's head is at right now.
Let's start with the specifics.
Amgen pulled the plug on AMG 378, an oral small molecule aimed at ulcerative colitis (a chronic inflammatory bowel disease that affects millions). The Phase 1 trial enrolled 48 healthy volunteers before Amgen shut it down, citing a "low likelihood of clinical success" and the need to prioritize its portfolio. No other trials were running.
Boehringer Ingelheim axed BI 3009947, an oral immune modulator that had been tested in 40 healthy men. The company said clinical data "did not support further investigation." No safety problems there either. Boehringer didn't even publicly name the disease it was targeting.
Both companies framed the decisions as smart housekeeping: cut early, cut clean, move on. And honestly? That framing is probably right. Killing a Phase 1 program is like folding a bad poker hand before the flop. You lose your ante, but you keep your stack for a better hand.
The real story isn't that two programs failed. It's that failure is the overwhelming default in this business, and it's getting worse.
Phase 1 drugs now succeed at a rate of just 6.7%, down from 10% a decade ago. Think about that: for every 15 drugs that enter early testing, only one will eventually reach patients. The internal rate of return on pharma R&D sits at a thin 4.1%. You'd almost do better buying Treasury bonds.

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Timelines have stretched too. Getting from Phase 1 to a regulatory filing now takes over 100 months on average. That's more than eight years of science, setbacks, and spending before you even ask for approval.
In immunology specifically, the challenge is compounded by a crowded competitive landscape. Established blockbusters like Dupixent (for eczema and asthma) and a growing wave of biologics have set a high bar. Any new entrant doesn't just need to work; it needs to work better than therapies already generating billions in revenue. That's a tough audition.
What makes this interesting is that neither Amgen nor Boehringer is retreating from immunology. Far from it. They're pruning the garden, not burning it down.
Boehringer has been on a dealmaking spree. In 2025 alone, the company signed a collaboration with Cue Biopharma for B-cell depletion candidates, expanded a partnership with CDR-Life into autoimmune diseases, and licensed a preclinical small molecule program from Kyowa Kirin. It also struck a deal with Simcere for a bispecific antibody targeting inflammatory bowel disease, valued at up to roughly €1.058 billion. Boehringer has more than 80 active preclinical and clinical projects across its portfolio, with plans for over 15 new Phase 2 or Phase 3 starts in the next 12 to 18 months.
Amgen, meanwhile, is riding momentum from its existing inflammation portfolio. TEZSPIRE, its severe asthma drug (co-developed with AstraZeneca), saw sales jump 52% to $1.5 billion in 2025. Otezla, for psoriasis, pulled in $2.5 billion. And UPLIZNA, which Amgen gained through its Horizon acquisition, grew 73% to $655 million, with Phase 3 expansions into autoimmune hepatitis planned for 2026. The company poured $7.3 billion into R&D last year.
So the message isn't "immunology is dead." The message is: "We'd rather invest billions in programs with better odds than nurse along long shots."
This is the part of the cycle where big pharma gets ruthless, and there's a reason for it.
The industry is staring down a $350 billion patent cliff between 2025 and 2029. Blockbuster drugs are losing exclusivity, generic competition is coming, and companies need their R&D dollars working harder than ever. You can't afford to run a mediocre Phase 2 trial for three years when that money could fund a licensing deal for something more promising.
Amgen's own playbook for 2026 emphasizes "disciplined data generation," which is corporate-speak for: we're going to be picky about what moves forward. Capital expenditures are rising to around $2.6 billion, but the company wants those dollars concentrated on high-confidence bets.
Boehringer is playing a similar game. Rather than develop everything in-house, it's increasingly licensing external assets that have already cleared early hurdles. Buy the proof, skip the risk.
If you're watching the biotech space, two Phase 1 terminations won't move any stock prices or shift any market dynamics. These were tiny programs that never made it past healthy volunteers.
But they're a useful signal. Big pharma is tightening the filter. The bar for advancing an immunology program is higher than it's been in years, because the competition is fierce and the cost of failure keeps climbing. Companies with 23,000 pipeline candidates globally are getting more selective, not less.
For smaller biotechs hoping to get acquired or partnered, the implication is clear: your data needs to be compelling early. Pharma isn't going to buy potential anymore. They want programs that already look like winners by Phase 1, or they'll pass.
Amgen and Boehringer didn't make headlines with these quiet terminations. But sometimes the most telling moves in this industry aren't the splashy acquisitions or the breakthrough approvals. They're the things companies choose to stop doing.
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