Issue #232·

Roche went back to China for seconds: a $15 billion ADC sequel

Roche signed its second ADC deal with the same Chinese biotech in twelve months, and the price tag jumped tenfold. Meanwhile, AbbVie is deliberately trying to kill its own blockbuster, Gilead crashed the IBD party, and a failed schizophrenia drug just aced a trial for people allergic to sunlight.

Top Story Today

Roche Liked Its First Chinese ADC Deal So Much, It Came Back for a $15 Billion Encore

One year after licensing a single antibody-drug conjugate from China's Hansoh Pharmaceutical for $1.45 billion, Roche just went back and bought access to the entire platform. The new deal is worth over $15 billion in potential milestones (plus $400 million upfront), roughly a tenfold escalation. Instead of licensing one molecule, Roche will now propose cancer targets and Hansoh will build custom ADCs using its proprietary linker-payload technology. It's the difference between buying a painting and commissioning an artist to decorate your whole house.

Why it matters: Chinese biotechs now account for nearly 90% of global ADC licensing deals by count. Roche's massive repeat partnership shows that Western pharma will keep writing billion-dollar checks for Chinese drug innovation, geopolitical tensions or not.

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The IBD Arms Race

AbbVie Built a Drug Designed to Beat Its Own Blockbuster. It Worked.

AbbVie's combo therapy ABBV-466 outperformed Skyrizi, its own blockbuster, in a Phase 2a Crohn's disease trial. By week 24, the combination hit 40.5% endoscopic remission versus 22.4% for Skyrizi alone. The logic: if someone's going to cannibalize your best-selling drug, better you than a competitor. Safety looked clean across all arms, clearing a key early hurdle for combination therapy in IBD.

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Gilead's UC Pill Just Posted Remission Rates Nearly 4x Placebo

Gilead's oral ulcerative colitis drug emvistegrast hit 31% clinical remission at 12 weeks versus 8% on placebo, with side effects comparable to sugar pills. The pill targets the same pathway as Takeda's injectable blockbuster Entyvio but comes in a form patients actually prefer: something you swallow at home. A late-stage study is planned for 2027.

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Deals and M&A

Viatris Drops $1.65 Billion (and a 45% Premium) to Break Up With Generics

Viatris is acquiring Pacira BioSciences for $1.65 billion in cash, paying a 45% premium for the non-opioid pain specialist and its flagship product EXPAREL ($575 million in 2025 sales). It's the generics giant's biggest move yet in a pivot toward specialty pharma, though analysts note the company paid "full price" for a business that's 79% dependent on one product.

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Shionogi Bets $2 Billion on Diseases Most Doctors Have Never Seen

The Japanese infectious disease giant is paying $2 billion cash for IntraBio, a rare disease company with a drug (Aqneursa) already approved for two ultra-rare neurological conditions. Analysts estimate peak sales around $1 billion, making the price roughly 2x peak revenue; nearly a bargain by orphan drug standards. It's a bold pivot from antibiotics into neurodegenerative disease.

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Clinical Breakthroughs and Funding

Roche's Failed Schizophrenia Drug Just Aced a Pivotal Trial for Sun Allergies

Disc Medicine's bitopertin, a molecule Roche abandoned after it flopped in schizophrenia, swept every endpoint in a pivotal Phase 3 trial for erythropoietic protoporphyria, a rare disorder that makes sunlight excruciating. Patients gained 12 extra pain-free hours per month in daylight, and blood toxin levels dropped 41%. One caveat: dizziness hit 50% of the treatment group. Disc Medicine plans to resubmit an NDA by end of 2026 after receiving a Complete Response Letter from the FDA earlier this year.

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$135 Million to Vaccinate People Against Cancer Before It Starts

Nouscom closed an oversubscribed $135 million Series D to fund a pivotal trial of NOUS-209, an off-the-shelf cancer vaccine for Lynch syndrome carriers who are genetically destined to develop colorectal cancer. No therapeutic cancer vaccine for a solid malignant tumor has won FDA approval in over a decade. The money funds one make-or-break trial to prove cancer interception actually works.

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