Issue #190·

Novo Nordisk just torched $3.4B on two failed drugs in one summer

Novo Nordisk killed two major pipeline programs in a matter of months, burning through billions in acquisition costs and leaving investors wondering if the GLP-1 giant can build anything beyond Ozempic. Meanwhile, an FDA approval could finally retire one of medicine's most medieval procedures.

Top Story Today

Novo Nordisk's Worst Summer: $3.4 Billion in Pipeline Bets Go to Zero

Novo Nordisk's ziltivekimab program collapsed after the flagship ZEUS trial reported a negative result (HR 0.99) and an independent committee halted the HERMES and ATHENA trials for futility. The drug, acquired for up to $2.1 billion in 2020, lowered inflammatory markers beautifully but failed to prevent heart attacks or strokes. Weeks later, Novo also axed ocedurenone, acquired in a deal worth up to $1.3 billion, after it missed its primary endpoint in Phase 3. The combined failures leave the world's most valuable obesity company with a glaring diversification problem: zero wins outside GLP-1s and a pipeline that keeps delivering losses.

Why it matters: Every failed program makes Novo more dependent on semaglutide, and single-franchise companies make Wall Street nervous. Analysts now call it a "wait-for-catalysts" story, with consensus ratings stuck at Hold and the pressure to deliver a non-GLP-1 win before decade's end growing heavier by the quarter.

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Clinical Wins

The Injection That Could Replace Your Blood Draws

The FDA approved rusfertide (Mimrylo), the first hepcidin mimetic, for polycythemia vera, a rare blood cancer where the main treatment is still literally draining your blood. In Phase 3, 77% of patients on rusfertide achieved clinical response versus 33% on placebo, with phlebotomy needs dropping from 1.8 procedures to 0.5. The broad label requires no prior therapy, validating Protagonist Therapeutics' peptide platform.

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AbbVie's Myeloma Drug Nearly Doubled Response Rates Against Standard Care

AbbVie's bispecific antibody etentamig hit a 74% response rate in heavily pretreated multiple myeloma patients, compared to 45.7% for investigator-chosen therapy. The drug also cut the risk of disease progression or death by 60%. In a crowded bispecific market, the Phase 3 CERVINO results position etentamig as a potential best-in-class option for patients who've run out of good choices.

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Deals and Strategy

Pfizer Hands a Shelved Seagen Cancer Drug to a Former Shell Company

Pfizer transferred a Seagen-developed antibody-drug conjugate to Medicus Pharma for just $12 million upfront, with milestones that could top $1 billion. Medicus, which started life as a shell corp in 2008, now holds worldwide rights to the melanotransferrin-targeting ADC. The catch: Medicus carries all development costs and has flagged going-concern issues in its financials. Pfizer kept royalties and a co-funding option, shifting risk while preserving upside.

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Public Health

FDA Clears Updated COVID Shots for Fall, but Will Anyone Show Up?

The FDA authorized XFG-targeting COVID vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax-Sanofi for the 2026-2027 season. The science is solid (VRBPAC voted 8-0-1), but last season only 17.5% of U.S. adults got their updated shot. Pfizer is guiding approximately $4 billion in COVID revenue for 2026; Novavax expects just $35 to $45 million in direct sales. The biggest variable isn't virology, it's whether people care enough to get jabbed.

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