Issue #64·

The obesity drug ingredient that scared pharma for 40 years just hit Phase 3

A hormone that killed every obesity program it touched for four decades just posted results nobody expected. Meanwhile, India's largest generics company wrote an $11.75 billion check for a struggling Merck spinoff Wall Street had priced for dead, and Eli Lilly keeps spending billions on gene editors that don't exist in nature.

Top Story Today

The Obesity Ingredient Pharma Feared for 40 Years Just Crashed the Party

Glucagon killed every obesity drug it touched for four decades: liver toxicity, blood sugar spikes, dead programs. Boehringer Ingelheim ignored all of that. Its dual GLP-1/glucagon agonist survodutide just entered Phase 3 after posting up to nearly 19% weight loss in Phase 2, with up to 83% of high-dose patients losing at least 5% body weight. The trick is ratio: survodutide activates GLP-1 more strongly than glucagon, keeping blood sugar in check while glucagon quietly cranks up fat burning. The real differentiator may not be weight loss at all, though. Early data hints that survodutide burns fat while preserving lean muscle, and it already has FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation for fatty liver disease, a target neither semaglutide nor tirzepatide was built to hit.

Why it matters: The first pivotal trial readout for a glucagon/GLP-1 dual agonist validates a mechanism the industry abandoned decades ago, opening a new competitive front in a market projected to reach $99 billion by 2033.

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Deals and M&A

India's Generics King Bets $12 Billion on a Company Wall Street Left for Dead

Sun Pharma offered $14 per share for Organon, a struggling Merck spinoff trading well below analyst targets. The $11.75 billion deal instantly vaults Sun into the top 25 global pharma companies, adding $6.2 billion in revenue and commercial reach across more than 140 countries. The catch: $8.6 billion in inherited debt and some declining product lines that need fixing fast.

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Lilly Pays $2.25 Billion for Gene Editors Nature Never Invented

Eli Lilly committed up to $2.25 billion to Profluent Bio, a Bezos-backed startup that uses AI language models to design gene-editing proteins from scratch. The deal focuses on recombinases, enzymes that rearrange DNA more cleanly than traditional CRISPR. It's part of a genetic medicine spending spree that now totals well over $10 billion in potential milestones across multiple partnerships.

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Novartis Invented CAR-T. Now It's Watching the Next Generation From the Sidelines.

Rivals have spent billions acquiring in vivo CAR-T companies (plus Lilly's $7 billion Kelonia deal), but Novartis CEO Vas Narasimhan says the company is just "continuing to evaluate." The pioneer of FDA-approved CAR-T therapy now faces a shrinking list of acquisition targets as competitors gobble up the most promising startups in the space.

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Clinical Wins and Losses

A Two-Year-Old Biotech Just Embarrassed AbbVie's Blockbuster Psoriasis Drug

Oruka Therapeutics posted Phase 2 psoriasis data showing 63.5% complete skin clearance at 16 weeks, matching or beating AbbVie's blockbuster Skyrizi. The kicker: ORKA-001's extended half-life could mean one or two injections per year versus Skyrizi's four. Shares surged 30%, Guggenheim slapped a $200 price target on it, and Oruka raised $500 million in a follow-on offering.

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Janux Kills Its Biggest Solid Tumor Bet, and the Reason Is Familiar

Janux axed JANX008, its EGFR-targeted T-cell engager, after disappointing Phase 1 results across multiple solid tumor types. It joins a growing graveyard of programs that can't crack solid tumors' fortress-like defenses. The company's prostate cancer asset JANX007 and an $850 million BMS deal keep it alive, but Barclays cut the target to $14.

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Compass Therapeutics' Drug Worked, Then Its Own Trial Design Killed the Data

Tovecimig hit every tumor-control metric in biliary tract cancer, but missed its overall survival endpoint after 54% of control patients crossed over to the drug arm. Those crossover patients lived twice as long, which ironically inflated the control group's numbers and blurred the comparison. Shares cratered 66% in a single session.

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Funding and Pipeline Moves

Two Biotechs Filed for IPOs on the Same Day, and That's the Point

Seaport Therapeutics (depression) and Hemab Therapeutics (rare bleeding disorders) both filed for roughly $200 million IPOs at identical price ranges. After biotech IPOs flatlined in 2025, Q1 2026 saw median raises north of $287 million per deal, capped by Kailera's record $625 million listing. Analysts project 20 to 35 biotech IPOs this year.

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Astellas Spent $3 Billion on a Gene Therapy. Now It's Starting Over.

After four patient deaths and an FDA clinical hold, Astellas killed AT132 and swapped in ASP2957, a next-gen gene therapy requiring roughly 100-fold lower doses. The company also axed two other early-stage programs as part of a broader pipeline purge mirroring an industry trend: global R&D pipelines shrank 3.9% in the past year.

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A Belgian Startup Raised $125 Million to Develop Drugs Galapagos Threw Away

Coultreon Biopharma closed an oversubscribed Series A led by Sofinnova, Forbion, and Novo Holdings to advance pipeline assets Galapagos deprioritized during its restructuring. The lead candidate, an oral SIK3 inhibitor already in Phase 1, targets psoriasis and ulcerative colitis with proof-of-concept data expected by 2027. Even Galapagos itself invested in the round.

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