Issue #198·

The flu vaccine just ditched 6 billion chicken eggs

The FDA just approved the first-ever mRNA flu vaccine, and it's not about the flu. It's about proving that the technology behind the COVID shot isn't a one-hit wonder. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk walked away from a $285 million obesity deal, GSK wrote a $750 million check for a drug that doesn't exist yet, and a tiny biotech revived a mechanism that once destroyed careers.

Top Story Today

Moderna Just Graduated mRNA From Pandemic Tech to Everyday Medicine

The FDA approved Moderna's mFlusiva, the first-ever mRNA flu vaccine, for adults 50 and older. It's a bigger deal than the flu: this approval validates mRNA as a platform, not a pandemic fluke, and could eventually replace a manufacturing process that's relied on hundreds of millions of chicken eggs since the 1940s. In its pivotal trial, mFlusiva cut severe flu outcomes by 47.9% versus a standard vaccine. Wall Street's response? A polite golf clap. Moderna missed the 2026 contracting window, so real revenue won't flow until 2027 at the earliest.

Why it matters: This approval proves mRNA technology works beyond COVID, opening the door for faster, more flexible vaccine manufacturing across respiratory diseases. Moderna's endgame is a single shot covering both flu and COVID, though the timeline for a U.S. launch remains uncertain after the company withdrew its combo vaccine application in May 2025.

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The Obesity Arms Race

Novo Nordisk Dumps a $285M Obesity Partnership. The Reason Says Everything.

Novo Nordisk killed its $285 million deal with Ascendis Pharma to develop a once-monthly GLP-1 injection, handing back all rights. Neither company explained why. The leading theory: Novo's internal pipeline (including an oral obesity pill called zenagamtide) made a monthly shot feel redundant. In a market shifting toward pills, monthly injectables may already be yesterday's prize.

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Lilly Killed an Obesity Drug. Wall Street Said Thank You.

Eli Lilly discontinued its Phase IIb study of bimagrumab, a muscle-preserving antibody paired with Zepbound, for "strategic business reasons." Translation: the bar for new obesity drugs is now so high that merely good data isn't worth pursuing. With orforglipron already launched and retatrutide showing 28% weight loss, Lilly can afford to be ruthless.

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A Pharma Ghost Story With a Happy Ending (So Far)

Corbus Pharmaceuticals posted Phase 1b data showing its CB1-blocking obesity pill produced 5% weight loss in 12 weeks with zero serious psychiatric side effects. That matters because the last CB1 blocker was yanked from the market over suicidal thoughts. Working through an entirely different pathway than GLP-1 drugs, CRB-913 could eventually complement them rather than compete.

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Clinical Wins and Losses

BioNTech's Cancer Drug Just Doubled What Chemo Could Do

BioNTech's gotistobart delivered 18.5 months median overall survival in previously treated squamous lung cancer, nearly doubling chemo's 10 months. The drug uses a smarter approach to CTLA-4 blockade that depletes tumor-protecting immune cells while sparing healthy tissue. Pivotal-stage confirmation is still needed, but the vaccine company from Mainz is looking more and more like a cancer company.

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J&J's Antidepressant Strikes Out Again, Joining a Crowded Graveyard

J&J and Contineum's rapid-acting depression drug JNJ-5120 failed to beat placebo in its Phase 2 trial, the molecule's second consecutive miss across different diseases. The result adds to a brutal 2024-2026 streak for novel antidepressant mechanisms, where sky-high placebo response rates keep burying promising biology.

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Deals & Regulatory Moves

GSK Bets $750M on a Drug That Won't See a Patient Until 2027

GSK is paying up to $750 million for a preclinical trispecific T-cell engager from Chimagen Biosciences, targeting multiple myeloma. The drug grabs cancer cells in two places instead of one, theoretically boosting durability. It's GSK's second big Chimagen deal (total potential value: $1.6 billion across both), signaling deep conviction in the platform despite years of clinical risk ahead.

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The FDA Isn't Asking If Psychedelics Should Be Approved. It's Asking How.

The FDA held a landmark four-hour public hearing on psychedelic therapy access and safety, with Compass Pathways' psilocybin potentially months from a historic first approval. The discussion centered on provider training, insurance coverage, and scheduling hurdles, not whether these drugs should reach patients. The ghost of MDMA's 2024 rejection loomed over every word.

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