Issue #35·

Lilly just bet $2.75B that AI can find its next blockbuster drug

Eli Lilly went from quietly licensing AI software to writing a $2.75 billion check to the same company in under three years. Meanwhile, a hypertension drug worked so well on a single dose that it accidentally ruined its own clinical trial. It's been that kind of week in biotech.

Top Story Today

From First Date to $2.75 Billion: Lilly Goes All In on AI Drug Discovery

Eli Lilly escalated a quiet 2023 software license into one of the largest AI drug discovery deals ever, committing $115 million upfront and up to $2.75 billion total to Insilico Medicine. Lilly gets exclusive worldwide rights to a set of preclinical oral drugs plus the ability to point Insilico's generative AI platform at targets of its choosing. The platform claims to need far fewer molecules per program than the thousands typical in traditional discovery, and its lead candidate already posted positive Phase 2a results. The undisclosed therapeutic areas are the big question mark, though hints about a GLP-1 candidate suggest obesity could be in play.

Why it matters: This deal marks a turning point for AI in pharma. When a company as disciplined as Lilly commits billions to an AI-first R&D strategy, it signals the industry has moved past experimentation and into genuine conviction that machine learning can compress drug discovery timelines at scale.

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Clinical Trials & Data

Lupus Hasn't Had a New Targeted Treatment in 70 Years. Biogen Might Change That.

Biogen's litifilimab hit its primary endpoint in a Phase 2 trial for cutaneous lupus, a disease with no FDA-approved targeted therapy. About 14.7% of patients achieved clear or near-clear skin at Week 16 versus 2.9% on placebo. The drug works by silencing overactive immune cells called plasmacytoid dendritic cells, going upstream of existing approaches. Phase 3 trials are already running.

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This Hypertension Drug Worked So Well on One Dose It Broke Its Own Trial

Kardigan's tonlamarsen crushed its biomarker target in Phase 2, slashing angiotensinogen levels by 67%. But blood pressure dropped identically in both the continued monthly dosing and single run-in dose groups because a single run-in dose was far more potent than expected, sustaining blood pressure reduction and eliminating the intended comparison. The company is pivoting to acute severe hypertension, where that surprising single-dose potency could be a feature rather than a flaw.

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Deals & Financings

Another Obesity Biotech Heads for the IPO Window

Kailera Therapeutics is planning an IPO to fund its obesity drug pipeline, which is licensed entirely from Chinese pharma company Hengrui Medicine. The move reflects two converging trends: investors still can't get enough of the obesity space, and Western biotechs are increasingly looking to Chinese drugmakers as a source of clinical-stage assets rather than building from scratch.

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